Why Assad is scaling down military readiness across Syria

Feb 1, 2021

ALEPPO, Syria — The Syrian regime’s decision to lower the readiness of its navy and armed forces has raised a panoply of questions linked to the motivation and timing in the abet of the decision on the navy and financial prerequisites in Syria and raised the request as to whether or no longer the regime is calling for to bring deliver messages to parties influencing Syrian affairs.

On Jan. 10, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad issued a round ordering a rollback of navy mobilization to routine level, which technique the extent maintained 9 years up to now forward of the initiate of the battle.

According to the Enab Baladi opposition online online page, the decision stipulated “scaling down the wrestle readiness of the Syrian navy departments by the repeat of 66% to 33% for administrative departments, 80% to 50% for navy devices affiliated thereto and 100% to 80% for flooring forces and the navy. In hospitals, on the opposite hand, readiness became once maintained at 80%.”

Mohammed Adeeb, a political science researcher who lives in the nation-yell of Aleppo, told Al-Show screen, “To withhold the same level of wrestle readiness, the regime requires a persisted drift of strengthen and funding. The regime has been garnering strengthen from Iran ever since it joined its ally, the Assad regime, in the war in opposition to the Syrian revolution. Alternatively, it appears that Iranian funding for the regime’s navy has stopped attributable to the industrial prerequisites and global sanctions imposed on the Iranian regime.”

Adeeb talked about the regime, by intention of its decision to lower the wrestle readiness of its forces, “is calling for to restful the anger of its Syrian supporters who began to prolonged for his or her sons recruited in the navy. The choice has been seemingly taken to allow troopers and officers to switch to their families.”

Ahmad Hasan Abdel Qader, a political activist based in the nation-yell of Aleppo, told Al-Show screen, “The choice to lower the readiness of the regime navy became once [seemingly] per a Russian repeat, as Russia desires to bring a message to the influential nations in Syrian affairs that the war has ended. Also, the regime is making ready itself for the upcoming segment, and the decision is available in the framework of Russian efforts to entrench Assad’s rule and protect his regime.”

Hisham Eskif, deputy head of the political bureau of the opposition Al-Salam Brigade, told Al-Show screen, “The reveal motive in the abet of the Syrian regime’s decision to scale down the readiness of its forces is its inability to undergo the high expenses that the eternal yell of alert requires attributable to the deteriorating financial danger in Syria. Consequently, we are able to also check a rollback in the financial allocations to the navy, which technique a discount in food, gasoline and other each day expenses.”

The brigade is affiliated with the Free Syrian Military (FSA). Eskif talked about, “The choice will no longer own a noticeable possess on the Idlib fronts in northwestern Syria, to illustrate, attributable to it does no longer observe to the militias supported by Russia nor the militias supported by Iran, and now we own to this level no longer monitored any major adjustments in the navy danger of the regime forces in Idlib and its environment.”

Abdulslam Abdulrzak, a researcher in navy affairs residing in Idlib, told Al-Show screen, “The choice to scale down the readiness of the regime’s navy is a pro-forma decision that can live ineffective. It is merely supposed to bring messages to the allied forces, basically Iran, in repeat for them to resume their financial and navy strengthen for the regime’s navy in the wrestle in opposition to the Islamic Assert [IS] in the Syrian desolate tract, which is a basically well-known land route for the Iranian forces and their affiliated militias to achieve their areas of affect. The timing of the decision became once no longer coincidental but coincided with the battles taking situation in the desolate tract. It is as if Assad desires to expose the Iranians, ‘In repeat for you us to severely lift half in combating IS in the desolate tract, then it’s likely you’ll well per chance per chance also serene proceed to bolster us.’”

Abdulrzak talked about, “The readiness of the regime’s navy will no longer be tormented by the de-escalation, because it goes to mobilize its forces in epic time in case there’s a own to involve the forces in a fight in opposition to the FSA or the Syrian Democratic Forces [SDF].”

Younes al-Karim, an financial researcher and analyst who lives in France, told Al-Show screen, “The choice that Assad made to scale down the readiness of his navy appears to be inevitable in gentle of the immense deficit in the navy’s budget, as Assad’s troopers possess no longer own adequate food of their navy barracks, and the yell of resentment in the ranks of the navy is rising by day. The Assad regime is making an are trying, by intention of this decision, to absorb the anger of its troopers.”

Karim talked about, “The choice conveys several messages to many parties. It conveys a message to Turkey whereby the regime will no longer start a fight in opposition to the FSA — Turkey’s ally in Idlib. It also conveys a message to the US the build it [Syria] will no longer start a fight in opposition to the SDF in northeast Syria and a message to Israel whereby the Assad regime isn’t very any longer afraid by the airstrikes directed at the Iranian forces in Syria.”

Karim added, “Through its messages to the three influential nations in Syrian affairs, the regime is looking to bag them to sympathize with it to mitigate the effects of the Caesar Act, and is making ready itself for the presidential elections scheduled for mid-2021.

The Syrian regime by no technique takes its selections randomly. It rather plans them and tries to construct the finest doable gains out of them each and every at the interior and external ranges.

Mahmood Talha, a journalist who works with the opposition’s Thiqa News Company, told Al-Show screen, “The navy readiness rollback decision will seemingly lead to cooling off the combating fronts and strengthening the yell of de-escalation in northwestern and northeastern Syria, which technique with the FSA and the SDF. The Syrians who live in areas start air the protect watch over of the regime will likely be precipitated to call on the local forces in protect watch over to offer a net to their residing and security prerequisites attributable to the regime navy now no longer poses a chance on the fight fronts, and the time is ripe to claim the basics that folks need. This may well occasionally well also leave the FSA and the SDF in a pickle as they possess no longer own organized institutions able to finishing up the major duties toward the thousands and thousands of Syrians residing in areas below their protect watch over, and this may well maybe lend a hand the Assad regime in the lead up to the upcoming presidential elections.”

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